Seven teams got conquered by double digits in Week 1 and we are seeing overcorrection of chances and spreads because of the overreaction that is instantaneous for Week 2. But within the previous five seasons, the teams that got crushed by 10 points or more in their opening match have covered the spread 63% of their time in Week 2.
Since the start of the 2014 season, there have been 34 cases of teams losing from things in Week 1 and their album will be 21-12-1 ATS for Week two. That listing seemed so dubious I had to double the consequence myself out of our stats man (shout-out to May!) .
See the table under angles that you could take advantage of for Week 2 and that illustrates this trend:
As you can see, the ATS percentage does not change much based on the sample size of last year, the previous 3 seasons and the past five seasons. This is not me saying to take out another mortgage and place it on the Dolphins +19??spread vs the Patriots however there’s some virtue to throwing a bounce-back from teams in Week 2 by these keeping games winning straight (52.9 percent over last five decades ).
The seven groups which dropped in Week 1 by 10 points or more would be Jaguars, Steelers, Browns, the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We wouldn’t be an authority on chances and trends if we did not at least examine the side and see how teams do after crushing an opponent. According to the past five seasons, most teams which won by 10 points or more in Week 1 have covered in 45.5 percent of the games in Week 2.
See the table below for the last 3 seasons 2018 and past five seasons:
There’s a regression from those winners that is likely because opposing defenses now have game footage which could pinpoint weaknesses and they will not be caught off guard like Week 1 victims, as evidenced in the table above.
It is also because of inflated spreads that are not a true representation of how those groups are ATS. As an example, the seven teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
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